TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR ARID REGIONS AND BEYOND

Abstract

Climate change poses critical challenges to the globe, hindering sustainable development. These challenges are more pronounced in the arid regions and coastal areas where the ecosystems, economies, and societies are most affected by water scarcity, which hence requires effective water resource management. Regional sustainable development necessitates crafting and implementing the essential policies that enable equilibrium among the economic, social, and environmental sub-sectors. Considering the significance, this research study addresses the water resource management challenges in arid regions and coastal areas. A system dynamics modeling (SDM) approach is employed to simulate the system behavior under varying water management scenarios both at a national and regional scale. In the first part of this study, a comprehensive water resource management decision support system (DSS) is developed for an arid region, considering Qatar as a study area, with projected system behavior from 2021 to 2070. The system analysis reveals that under the contemporary practices of “business-as-usual scenario”, water resource sustainability could be ensured for thirty years. Furthermore, by increasing the water supply capacity by 10% by investing in non-conventional water sources, including desalination water plants following responsible water consumption and reducing the demand by 10%, water sustainability in the region may be ensured by fifty years, which is pivotal for regional sustainable development. Various groundwater conservation strategies have also been formulated using the scenario design framework. The water conservation strategies underscore the significance of preserving non-renewable groundwater as a "backstop" resource. The second part of the research models the complex interplay between dynamic water, agriculture and tourism (WAT) nexus of a coastal region under the impact of climate change, considering the Torre Guaceto coastal region in Southern Italy as a case study region. The SDM-based DSS simulation model was developed to analyze the system's WAT dynamics for 2024 to 2050. The variation in the long-term salinity levels and their impact on crop yield are analyzed under climate change moderate emissions and extreme emissions scenarios. Given the high reliance on groundwater as a primary irrigation source, the regional crop yield is projected to decline following an increase in the salinity levels. Subsequently, this will significantly reduce the regional agriculture revenue and may pose food security challenges. The analysis reveals that the regional tourism sector makes higher economic gains than agriculture. However, both sectors are vital for sustainable regional development. Agriculture not only meets essential food requirements but also enhances rural tourism by preserving scenic landscapes and cultural heritage. To maximize benefits, it is recommended that tourism revenue be strategically reinvested to promote socioeconomic and environmental sustainability in the region. The significance of this research work lies in the development of a comprehensive framework to holistically model and analyze the socio-environmental systems. The developed DSS is versatile and applicable to other arid regions and coastal areas with similar climatic conditions, offering a valuable simulation tool for addressing water sustainability challenges amid the stresses of urbanization and climate change.

Date of Award	2024
Original language	American English
Awarding Institution	HBKU College of Science and Engineering