STRATEGIC RESOURCE GOVERNANCE IN THE MENA REGION: A GAME-THEORETIC SIMULATION OF ENERGY-WATER-FOOD NEXUS

Abstract

The Energy-Water-Food (EWF) nexus presents a critical challenge for sustainable development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where resource scarcity and interdependencies shape trade and cooperation. This thesis applies game-theoretic simulations to analyse how competitive and cooperative governance structures influence resource allocation and market outcomes across 15 MENA countries. Two approaches are examined: Cournot competition (non-cooperative) and Cartel coordination (cooperative), applied respectively to electricity generation and tomato production, while water is conceptually addressed through virtual-water trade given its non-tradable nature. In the MENA energy market, Cournot behaviour yields a price of $42.92 per MWh, output of 958.2 TWh, participation by 10 countries, and total profits of $15.10 billion. Under Cartel coordination, the price rises to $70.12 per MWh (+63.4%), output falls to 569.7 TWh (−40.6%), participation narrows to 6 countries, and total profits increase to $26.51 billion (+75.5%). In the MENA food market, Cournot competition produces a price of $901.92 per ton, output of 12,107 thousand tons, participation by 8 countries, and profits of $5.32 billion; Cartel coordination raises the price to $1,112.21 per ton (+23.3%), cuts output to 7,850 thousand tons (−35.2%), limits participation to 4 countries, and lifts profits to $6.54 billion (+22.9%). A third Market Share Exchange scenario (developed for the MENA food sector) achieves full participation (15 countries), a price of $933 per ton (+3.5% vs Cournot; −16.1% vs Cartel), output of 11,475 thousand tons, and total profits of $5.33 billion (+0.34% vs Cournot). Overall, the results show that hybrid cooperative frameworks can stabilise prices, broaden participation, and strengthen resilience across the MENA region relative to purely competitive or strictly cartelised market structures.

Date of Award	2026
Original language	American English
Awarding Institution	HBKU College of Science and Engineering