PATHWAYS TO A LOW-EMISSION FUTURE: DEVELOPING LONG-TERM ENERGY TRANSITION SCENARIOS FOR QATAR

Abstract

The global urgency to mitigate climate change necessitates the development of robust, localized strategies for energy transition. Qatar, one of the world’s largest natural gas producers, faces the unique challenge of aligning its economic priorities with global climate commitments. This dissertation explores pathways for a long-term, low-emission future for Qatar, focusing on sector-specific and system-wide decarbonization strategies tailored to its energy-intensive economy. The study begins by synthesizing global Low Emission Development Strategies (LEDS) to identify best practices and their applicability to Qatar’s energy landscape. It then develops comprehensive, scenario-based models to evaluate decarbonization pathways across energy demand sectors—buildings, transport, and industry. The findings indicate emissions reduction potentials of 30% in buildings, 28% in transport, and 32% in industry by 2050, achievable through targeted interventions. For the power sector, the research develops a suite of scenarios, ranging from pragmatic to highly ambitious, evaluating trade-offs between economic feasibility, carbon reduction, and the cost of emissions. The Least Cost scenario emerges as a pragmatic approach, achieving nearly 50% emissions reductions by 2050 while minimizing economic impacts. In contrast, more ambitious pathways, such as the Clean Electricity scenario, aim for complete decarbonization of the power sector by 2050, requiring significant investments in renewable capacity, grid infrastructure, and advanced technologies. This research provides a data-driven roadmap for Qatar’s policymakers, offering actionable and scalable strategies to advance the nation’s energy transition and sustained emission reductions.

Date of Award	2024
Original language	American English
Awarding Institution	HBKU College of Science and Engineering