OPTIMISING CO2 MANAGEMENT IN QATAR’S ENERGY SECTOR: A POLICY-DRIVEN, MULTI-MODEL FRAMEWORK FOR INDUSTRIAL DECARBONISATION

Abstract

The increasing urgency of climate change mitigation necessitates integrated strategies for managing industrial CO₂ emissions while sustaining economic growth. Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS) has emerged as a key pathway to reduce emissions in energy-intensive sectors; however, effective allocation and utilisation of captured CO₂ across industrial systems remain challenging due to differences in purity requirements, economic constraints, and infrastructure limitations. This research addresses these challenges by developing an optimisation-based framework for CO₂ allocation and utilisation within industrial ecosystems, using Qatar as a representative case study. The methodology integrates Linear Programming (LP), Nonlinear Programming (NLP), and Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) to optimise CO₂ allocation across multiple sources and sinks under varying operational and policy scenarios, including carbon tax, subsidies, and incentives. The framework is progressively refined by incorporating sink-specific CO₂ purity and flowrate requirements, supported by process simulations in Aspen HYSYS and regression-based purification cost functions. A gate-to-gate Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is also conducted for a selected utilisation pathway involving Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) in the Dukhan Field. Results demonstrate that optimal CO₂ allocation depends strongly on source–sink compatibility, particularly purity, flowrate, and transport distance. Purity constraints reveal significant trade-offs between cost and feasibility, while over-purification increases energy demand and reduces efficiency. Under supply constraints, allocation becomes more selective, prioritising high-value sinks. The LCA results show that transitioning from externally sourced CO₂ to a closed-loop recycling system with Combined Heat and Power (CHP) integration can reduce life-cycle Global Warming Potential (GWP) by up to 65% over a 21-year EOR operation. Policy analysis further indicates that combined carbon policy instruments (tax, subsidy, and allocation incentives) outperform single-policy approaches by up to 2.4 times, significantly improving capture and allocation outcomes. Overall, this research provides an integrated CO₂ management framework linking technical, economic, environmental, and policy dimensions. Although based on Qatar, the framework is adaptable to other industrial regions pursuing sustainable decarbonisation.

Date of Award	2026
Original language	American English
Awarding Institution	HBKU College of Science and Engineering