MODELING OF THE ENERGY, WATER AND FOOD NEXUS: A CASE FOR FOOD SECURITY

Abstract

Natural resources and their associated systems are undergoing diverse stresses due to the expansion of anthropogenic activities. Most of the industrial sectors rely heavily on the water, energy and food resources for their operations and economic expenditures. This dependence leads to increased environmental burdens and significant resources depletion. The energy-water-food (EWF) nexus is a concept that takes advantage of the intrinsic connections between resources and model subsystems to promote effective resource management, build resilience, and raise environmental awareness. While it is a framework that can offer insights into resource sub-system decision-making, it is unable, alone, to solve today's multidimensional resource issues. Food insecurity is a global challenge stemming from various factors, of which is resource mismanagement. This PhD thesis investigates the possibility of understanding and alleviating food insecurity by means of the EWF nexus approach combined with a range of modelling and analytical tools that enable the characterisation and analysis of resources in volatile and risky environments. This thesis aims to develop a comprehensive framework that bridges the gap between the local production and the international trade network as means to establish a resilient, sustainable, and secure food system that can withstand instabilities. The proposed scheme, formulated as an agent-based model enables the simulation of future behaviors of the food system under different circumstances. Scenarios developed forecast the behavior of the system in charge of the provision of tomato crop considering economic, environmental, and social factors while ensuring a continuous, nutritious, and affordable provision. The model also allows the modeling of international and national competition being the major stressors affecting the stability of the food sector by means of game theoretic approaches. The goal of the suggested scheme is to assist decisionmakers in taking decisions that fundamentally aspire the satisfaction of local food demands, while balancing interactions between water and energy resources, strategically exploiting strengths of the existing systems, along with reducing vulnerabilities through the prediction of events that would potentially cause shortages and wastage of food.

Date of Award	2023
Original language	American English
Awarding Institution	HBKU College of Science and Engineering