MAPPING THE SUDAN CONFLICT: A SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS (SNA) OF WAR DYNAMICS AND PEACEBUILDING PATHWAYS

Abstract

This study employs Social Network Analysis (SNA) and Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) to examine the structural dynamics of the Sudan conflict between April 2023 and January 2026. Addressing the central research question - How do network structures among conflict actors shape the distribution of the power and the persistence of the Sudan war (2023 - January 2026), the research builds a network model of 28 actors which include military, political, regional, and humanitarian entities. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group with significant positional power, are both defined by their complex relational embeddedness as they are revealed by this analysis as a critical structural bridge. Network metrics, including betweenness and eigenvector centrality, illuminate direct and indirect sources of power, demonstrating that conflict dynamics extend beyond a simple SAF-RSF dichotomy. In response to sub-questions, the study raises four distinct clusters of actors, suggesting an important polarization and the disintegration of governing and of legitimacy in Sudan. It further traces the positioning of domestic armed and political players in relation to regional and international actors, revealing patterns of dependency, sponsorship and mediation that complicate the conflict landscape. These observed network structures yield analytical insights into the persistence and polarization of the conflict by challenging traditional state-centric analyses and stressing the importance of relational structures in modern warfare. Based upon these findings, the study suggests that strengthening civilian bridging actors, engaging more highly-centred regional and domestic actors, using multi-bloc negotiation frameworks, and using data-driven monitoring of alliances will be essential. By combining quantitative network modeling with qualitative interpretation, this research presents analytical and practical insights for the policy makers, mediators, and scholars to understand how network-aware approaches can be part of conflict resolution, and sustainable peace efforts, in complex, multi-layered environments. Keywords: Sudan Conflict, SNA, OSINT, Network Dynamics, Power Distribution.

Date of Award	2026
Original language	American English
Awarding Institution	HBKU College of Islamic Studies