MAKING DECISION-MAKING APPROACHES TO IMPROVE RESILIENCE IN FOOD SUPPLY CHAINS AND ENHANCE FOOD SECURITY AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS

Abstract

Global food security is increasingly threatened by resource scarcity, shifting dietary patterns, environmental degradation, price volatility, and supply chain disruptions. The complexity of food systems arises from the interplay of technological, political, economic, and social factors, each exerting dynamic and often unpredictable influences on food availability, accessibility, and stability. Recognizing these challenges, extensive research has sought to mitigate risks within food systems through various modeling approaches and decision-support tools. This dissertation advances the growing body of literature, on food security by focusing on supply chain resilience in the face of climate change and economic instability. It develops a robust decision-making framework that integrates risk assessment and multi-objective optimization to enhance national food security through a resilient, global trade network. Qatar serves as the case study, given its heavy reliance on food imports and vulnerability to climate-related disruptions. The research follows a two-stage methodology. The first stage establishes a comprehensive risk assessment framework employing an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate trade partners based on climate risk exposure, economic stability, environmental sustainability, and supply reliability. This assessment identifies optimal trading partners and their associated risks. The second stage incorporates a multi-objective optimization model that balances economic costs, environmental impacts, and climate-related risks while ensuring the fulfillment of national food demand. The model evaluates key crops such as tomatoes, onions, and cucumbers, incorporating trade-offs between supply chain efficiency and resilience to external shocks. By integrating risk assessment with optimization, this research offers a novel, systematic approach to strengthening food supply chain resilience in a rapidly evolving global landscape. The results highlight key trade partners, optimal import networks, and policy recommendations for mitigating supply risks and enhancing food security. The study's results provide interesting insights for stakeholders aiming to design adaptive food security strategies that can withstand future uncertainties posed by climate change and economic fluctuations.

Date of Award	2025
Original language	American English
Awarding Institution	HBKU College of Science and Engineering