CHALLENGES OF PROGRAM EVALUATION IN CONFLICT CONTEXT

Abstract

This research examined how evaluation practices change when at least one of the fundamental assumptions of evaluation — such as reliable access, safe physical presence for researchers, functional baselines and/or monitoring systems — do not exist in Fragile and Conflict Affected Environments (FCAEs). An exploratory qualitative systematic literature review was performed using studies that have been published from 2000 to 2026. Nineteen studies were located via Scopus and Web of Science, then screened using PRISMA style screening processes and a thematic analysis was done. The relatively small number of studies appears to reflect the inconsistent and limited nature of the evidence base in these environments. The thematic analysis utilized a pragmatic critical realist perspective. From this viewpoint, the restrictions described in the literature represent limitations that go beyond being logistical constraints and instead point to more deeply embedded structural conditions (i.e. insecurity, displacement, and under-resourced institutions) that limit what is possible to evaluate. Five common constraints emerged across all the studies reviewed: limited researcher access; unstable sampling; unreliable or non-existent baseline measurement systems; misalignment of the timing of program cycles and evaluation timelines; and consistent ethical risk. In many instances flexible design replaces experimental design; ethical protections are increased and may limit the depth of the data collected; local partner organizations assist with accessing study participants but also introduce potential tradeoffs; and data collection occurs during short "access windows." Additionally, mixed-methods and triangulation may not always represent preferred methodologies but rather represent creative solutions to working with incomplete information. In total, the quality of evaluations conducted in fragile conflict-affected environments is best represented as the intentional and transparent management of trade-offs with the goal of creating contextually relevant credible claims and minimizing harm.

Date of Award	2026
Original language	American English
Awarding Institution	HBKU College of Public Policy