A SYSTEMS-BASED DECISION FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE COASTAL ADAPTATION IN QATAR: INTEGRATING RISK ASSESSMENT, STAKEHOLDER PREFERENCES, AND NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS

Abstract

Coastal areas in Qatar are increasingly vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR), flooding, and erosion, posing significant risks to ecosystems, infrastructure, and socio-economic systems. This study develops a sustainable coastal adaptation framework integrating GIS-based risk assessment, stakeholder engagement via the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and cost–benefit analysis (CBA) to translate vulnerability assessments into practical, locally relevant interventions. In addition, the study evaluates the potential of local mangrove ecosystems for carbon sequestration within the climate adaptation–mitigation nexus. The results reveal clear spatial variability in coastal risks. The North coast emerged as the highest-risk zone (CRI = 3.63 under SSP5–8.5). Under high-emission scenarios, ~8–10% of the national population potentially remains highly exposed. Critical energy and industrial infrastructure, which contribute ~USD 78 billion annually to the nation’s economy, and coastal ecosystem services, valued at ~USD 67 million annually, are also within exposed zones. Stakeholder preferences, as reflected in structured surveys analyzed using AHP and CBA, indicate mangrove restoration as the most preferred option. Restoration of 100 ha of Avicennia marina mangroves could provide substantial ecological and socio-economic benefits, with a total present value of benefits (PVB) of 63.9 million USD and a net present value (NPV) of +57.7 million USD, yielding a benefit–cost ratio (BCR) of 10.4. In comparison, dyke construction achieves PVB of 94.3 million USD and NPV of +10.6 million USD (BCR 1.1). Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of mangrove restoration. Applying higher discount rates to costs (5–7%) and lower rates to ecological benefits (1%) increases NPV to 61.9–62.6 million USD and BCR to 12.8–14.8, while dyke construction remains comparatively inefficient (BCR 1.3–1.4). Mangrove ecosystems also provide measurable climate mitigation benefits. Analysis of Avicennia marina stands at Al Khor, and Al Thakhira indicates a 21.03% spatial expansion between 2014 and 2023, storing ~185,641 Mg CO₂ eq, with ~8,983 Mg CO₂ eq sequestered over the past decade (~998 Mg CO₂ eq yr⁻¹). Projections indicate potential expansion to ~1,014 ha and 225,183 Mg CO₂ eq by 2032 under baseline conditions, but SLR scenarios (RCP 8.5) could reduce this potential to 78,814–101,333 Mg CO₂ eq. Collectively, findings advocate integrating mangrove restoration into Qatar's coastal adaptation planning, underpinned by blue carbon monitoring, as a cost-effective and sustainable pathway to long-term coastal resilience.

Date of Award	2026
Original language	American English
Awarding Institution	HBKU College of Science and Engineering