The Qatari Crop Performance Index: A tool for selecting high-efficiency agriculture

This study develops and applies the Crop Performance Index (CPI), a fuzzy logic-based multi-criteria decision-support framework designed to evaluate agricultural system performance in hyper-arid environments through an integrated Water–Energy–Food (WEF) nexus lens. The CPI holistically assesses three interconnected dimensions: Food Security (FSI), Environmental Sustainability (SI), and System Resilience (RI), across 25 distinct crop-technology configurations in Qatar. Utilizing a Mamdani fuzzy inference system, the framework incorporates expert knowledge through transparent policy rules, avoiding the arbitrariness of conventional weighted-aggregation methods. Scenario analysis under four policy orientations—Balanced, FSI-Priority, SI-Priority, and RI-Priority—reveals that while top-performing systems remain stable, policy priorities can significantly alter the evaluation of individual systems. For instance, high-resilience systems such as Open-Field Leafy Vegetables improve from a “Poor” (0.156) to a “Moderate” (0.500) rating under resilience-focused policy. Robustness analyses confirm the framework’s reliability under both membership function perturbations (±50%) and input data uncertainty (±10%). The results provide a quantitative basis for strategically deprioritizing resource-intensive, low-yield agricultural systems and advancing policies that promote technology-integrated, high-efficiency controlled environment agriculture. This work contributes an actionable, nexus-informed decision tool for aligning agricultural investment with long-term resource security and climate resilience in arid regions. The CPI directly supports the Qatar National Vision 2030 pillars of environmental sustainability and food security, as well as the Qatar National Food Security Strategy 2018–2023 (and its 2024–2030 update), which target increased local production while reducing water and energy footprints.