TY - JOUR
T1 - The prevalence of onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, 2000–2018
T2 - a geospatial analysis
AU - LBD 2019 Neglected Tropical Diseases Collaborators
AU - Schmidt, Chris A.
AU - Cromwell, Elizabeth A.
AU - Hill, Elex
AU - Donkers, Katie M.
AU - Schipp, Megan F.
AU - Johnson, Kimberly B.
AU - Pigott, David M.
AU - Abbas, Jaffar
AU - Adekanmbi, Victor
AU - Adetokunboh, Olatunji O.
AU - Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
AU - Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour
AU - Alanzi, Turki M.
AU - Alipour, Vahid
AU - Andrei, Catalina Liliana
AU - Andrei, Tudorel
AU - Anvari, Davood
AU - Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw
AU - Aqeel, Muhammad
AU - Arabloo, Jalal
AU - Jafarabadi, Mohammad Asghari
AU - Ausloos, Marcel
AU - Baig, Atif Amin
AU - Banach, Maciej
AU - Bärnighausen, Till Winfried
AU - Bhattacharyya, Krittika
AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.
AU - Bijani, Ali
AU - Brady, Oliver J.
AU - Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi
AU - Butt, Zahid A.
AU - Carvalho, Felix
AU - Chattu, Vijay Kumar
AU - Dahlawi, Saad M.A.
AU - Damiani, Giovanni
AU - Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen
AU - Deribe, Kebede
AU - Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda
AU - Diaz, Daniel
AU - Didarloo, Alireza
AU - Earl, Lucas
AU - Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed
AU - El Tantawi, Maha
AU - Fattahi, Nazir
AU - Fernandes, Eduarda
AU - Foigt, Nataliya A.
AU - Foroutan, Masoud
AU - Franklin, Richard Charles
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Househ, Mowafa
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Background: Onchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission. Methods: A dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000–2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000–2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions. Results: As of 2018, the prevalence of onchocerciasis infection continues to be concentrated across central and western Africa, with the highest mean estimates at the national level in Ghana (12.2%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.0–22.7). Mean estimates exceed 5% infection prevalence at the national level for Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that onchocerciasis infection has declined over the last two decades throughout western and central Africa. Focal areas of Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Uganda continue to have mean microfiladermia prevalence estimates exceeding 25%. At and above this level, the continuation or initiation of mass drug administration with ivermectin is supported. If national programs aim to eliminate onchocerciasis infection, additional surveillance or supervision of areas of predicted high prevalence would be warranted to ensure sufficiently high coverage of program interventions.
AB - Background: Onchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission. Methods: A dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000–2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000–2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions. Results: As of 2018, the prevalence of onchocerciasis infection continues to be concentrated across central and western Africa, with the highest mean estimates at the national level in Ghana (12.2%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.0–22.7). Mean estimates exceed 5% infection prevalence at the national level for Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that onchocerciasis infection has declined over the last two decades throughout western and central Africa. Focal areas of Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Uganda continue to have mean microfiladermia prevalence estimates exceeding 25%. At and above this level, the continuation or initiation of mass drug administration with ivermectin is supported. If national programs aim to eliminate onchocerciasis infection, additional surveillance or supervision of areas of predicted high prevalence would be warranted to ensure sufficiently high coverage of program interventions.
KW - Geospatial model
KW - Neglected tropical diseases
KW - Onchocerciasis
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85137312681
U2 - 10.1186/s12916-022-02486-y
DO - 10.1186/s12916-022-02486-y
M3 - Article
C2 - 36068517
AN - SCOPUS:85137312681
SN - 1741-7015
VL - 20
JO - BMC Medicine
JF - BMC Medicine
IS - 1
M1 - 293
ER -