The challenge of planning long-term GHG mitigation while diversifying the economy in Gulf Cooperation Council countries

GCC countries face the challenge of having to rapidly reduce their domestic GHG emissions while moving away from an economic model that developed around abundant and cheap fossil fuels. They aim to transform into more diversified, less-carbon intensive, knowledge-based economies, the future structure of which, however, remains largely uncertain. The possible implications of uncertainty around future economic diversification pathways on climate change policy and long-term infrastructure planning in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have so far not received much attention in the policy discourse and scientific literature. Therefore, the aim of the research is to explore this relationship and derive insights for GCC governments on how to design strategies that are robust under uncertainty. The study critically assesses climate change and economic diversification policies of the GCC countries; it finds that, while governments are generally aware of their interconnectedness, they are not always developing them jointly and mostly not accounting for possible uncertainties. The study further takes Qatar as a case study and explores selected economic diversification and climate change mitigation scenarios with Qatar TIMES, an energy systems model of Qatar. It finds that climate change policy is sensitive to uncertainty around economic diversification pathways and, importantly, that the two areas of policy influence one another in significant ways. The study therefore recommends that the two policy areas be carefully coordinated, also at sectoral level. To develop a better understanding of uncertainties and their impacts, policymakers should employ suitable analytical tools, including energy systems models and economic models.