Strategic Planning for Qatar’s Hydrogen Industry Development: Insights from Bayesian Belief Networks Analysis

Fossil fuel exporters such as Qatar are seeking ways to adapt to a world that aims to shift away from unabated fossil fuels. In this regard, clean hydrogen production is viable for harnessing the nation’s natural resources while addressing environmental concerns. Nonetheless, uncertainties surrounding the hydrogen market add complexity to hydrogen strategy development. Hence, the present study accounts for said uncertainties while deploying a probabilistic approach via a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to obtain evidence that can support decision-makers in generating Qatar’s potential hydrogen strategy. Outcomes indicate that if Qatar aims to become a major exporter of clean commodities, its current H₂ production will require a minor expansion. However, to position itself as a leading hydrogen exporter, Qatar would need to act more decisively, since several other countries are ahead, as reflected by the 2050 projections, which indicate that Qatar will face less than a 40% probability to satisfy a demand as high as 20 MTPA.