Soaring residential energy consumption due to rising heat indexes in the eastern Arabian Peninsula

Global warming and land use development are significant factors affecting energy demand in arid regions, particularly in the eastern Arabian Peninsula. Understanding the relationships among land use change, Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Heat Index (HI), and their impacts on energy demand in the residential sector, is crucial for developing effective measures to adapt to current and forecasted climatic trends in densely populated areas of the Eastern Arabian Peninsula. While these urban areas account for more than 40% of the global energy production, their vulnerability to rising heat indexes remains largely unquantified. To address this need, we assess the effects of climate-driven and urban land use changes on energy consumption in the residential sector of the eastern Arabian Peninsula, using the city of Doha, Qatar, as a representative case study. Decadal meteorological records, energy, and remote sensing spatial metric data from 1991 to 2025 are used to quantify the climate associated with urban land use patterns, which are correlated with provincial energy consumption data. Geographic information systems, Google Earth Engine, neural network AI, and statistical analysis methods are used to quantify these impacts. Over the past two decades, urban space in Doha has grown by 5,501 hectares (8.8%). Additionally, green spaces in the city have expanded by 2,971 hectares, resulting in a 5% increase. At the same time, the bare land area decreased by 13.7% (8,728 ha). The annual five-year mean LST increased with the expansion of urban land use, with the maximum mean temperature observed between 2021 and 2025 at 52,29°C, compared to 45°C between 1991 and 1995. The HI maps confirm the increasing climate-driven conditions, especially in the summer months, June to August, with 41% of recorded temperatures classified as Danger (41–54°C) to Extreme Danger (' 54°C). The monthly spatiotemporal HI chart of Doha indicates that over a third of the months between 2005 and 2024 have temperatures exceeding 52°C. Our results show that urban growth and climate-driven patterns significantly impact energy consumption, resulting in a 25% increase in annual electricity consumption (from 40,269 GWh to 50,613 GWh) over the past five years. The residential sector accounts for the highest energy consumption, reaching 19,900 GWh in 2024, a 16% increase from 2020 (17,100 GWh). Furthermore, in 2020, climate-driven factors accounted for 17% (2,907 GWh). This increase is considerable in 2024, reaching 5,771 GWh (29% of residential energy consumption). Our forecasts suggest that by 2050, a 1 °C rise in average annual temperature, combined with 3% yearly population growth, could boost total annual electricity demand in Qatar by 65%. This trend confirms the significant increase in energy consumption due to climate change in hyper-arid regions. The current deployment of blue-green infrastructure in the city has not yet been effective in reducing HI or associated energy consumption. In light of our findings, we discuss the need for adaptation measures to address rising temperatures in cities on the eastern Arabian Peninsula, which were largely unconstrained prior to this study.