Scenario-based stochastic techno-economic assessment of energy-efficient spectrum selective greenhouses

Agricultural production in arid climates faces challenges due to harsh conditions, requiring cooling technologies to support crop growth. Mechanically active cooling systems, such as heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning, are effective but energy-intensive, leading to high costs. This study proposes using spectrum-selective fluids in greenhouse roofs to supplement the cooling system by blocking near-infrared radiation while allowing photosynthetic active radiation to pass. This approach decreases cooling demand but also reduces yield, presenting a trade-off in greenhouse performance. A stochastic techno-economic analysis was conducted using an integrated input-yield model with historical solar irradiance and temperature data. Scenarios were generated and reduced using k-means clustering. Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the techno-economic performance of the ATO-WO₃ greenhouse system under uncertainty. Key indicators assessed included the expected net present value, minimum selling price, and discounted payback period. Although the ATO-WO₃ greenhouse exhibited a lower expected tomato yield, 5.87% and 11.55% less than that of the water-based and conventional greenhouse systems, respectively, it outperformed in terms of economic viability. The ATO-WO₃ system achieved an expected net present value of $1465.07 m^-2, a minimum selling price of $2.25 kg^-1, and a discounted payback period of 8.22 years. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify the influence of key input variables on these techno-economic indicators.