Safety risks assessment of infrastructure challenges in liquid hydrogen transport in a multimodal network: an ISM-FIS-based analysis

This study assesses the risk probabilities/levels of infrastructural challenges in liquid hydrogen (LH2) transportation within a multimodal network that extends from hydrogen production plants in the Gulf countries to the corridor's refueling stations. The methodology integrates Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and MATLAB (R) based Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) to provide a structured and quantifiable risk analysis. ISM is applied to analyze interdependence among the key infrastructure challenges and safety risk factors. The results reveal that insufficient hydrogen-ready infrastructure at ports and hubs is the foundational issue. Four challenges: limited cryogenic maintenance, poor emergency response, weak digital monitoring, and material degradation of storage tanks, emerging as intermediate. Six safety risks, including flammability and explosion, leak detection issues, high-pressure storage, cryogenic hazards, vapor clouds, and electrostatic discharge, are the most dependent. The FIS results show that transportation risk levels/probabilities increase significantly with greater severity or concurrent occurrence of these challenges. For a demonstrative analysis, we consider two sub-challenges: the lack of a high-safety transport container design and material fatigue caused by fluctuating conditions. The results indicate that the probability of flammability and explosion risk remains relatively low (approximately 45%) when both factors are at low severity levels. The probability rises to a moderate level (55-65%) when either challenge is rated as medium and peaks at 70-75% when both are severe. This study contributes theoretically by integrating ISM and FIS to develop a systemic framework for assessing LH2 transportation risks in a multimodal network and offers practical recommendations for mitigating key infrastructure challenges.