Quantitative risk assessment of gas-based combined cycle power plant using dispersion modeling

Gas-Based Combined Cycle Power Plants (GBCCPPs) play a pivotal role in modern energy systems by combining high-thermal efficiency with reduced emissions. However, their operation carries significant hazards, including fires, explosions, and toxic gas releases, potentially leading to loss of life, environmental damage, and substantial disruptions. Nonetheless, safety management systems at many facilities rely predominantly on qualitative methods, resulting in limited incorporation of quantified risk metrics in emergency-response planning. In this work, we present a comprehensive Quantitative Risk Assessment framework tailored to GBCCPPs. We employ failure-frequency analysis alongside consequence modeling to estimate the likelihood and severity of potential accident scenarios. Consequence analysis is conducted using Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres software, facilitating high-resolution dispersion modeling of hazardous releases. This framework yields probabilistic risk contours that delineate zones of varying harm potential and support the identification of dominant hazard contributors. Application of the framework to a representative GBCCPP demonstrates its capability to quantify catastrophic release scenarios and reveal critical operational vulnerabilities. The results provide actionable insights for plant operators, enabling evidence-based prioritization of mitigation measures and optimization of safety protocols. This study bridges the gap between qualitative methods and data-driven risk management in GBCCPPs, thereby enhancing both operational safety and regulatory compliance.