How the carbon emission reduction scenarios affect drought patterns in the Middle East and North Africa region

The Paris Agreement aims to mitigate global warming to protect vulnerable communities and promote sustainable development. In this respect, the current target can reduce the risk of natural hazards, especially in climate hotspots. This study focuses on droughts in a region covering the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the context of limiting global warming. The researchers assessed drought frequency, intensity, and duration changes using a standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). They estimated SPEI from an ensemble of eight General Circulation Models regarding precipitation and evapotranspiration. Calculations for evapotranspiration were made using the Penman-Monteith equation. The results indicate a projected increase in drought events over time, characterised by greater frequency, intensity, and duration. The dominant category will be extreme drought, projected to increase by 20-60% over most MENA under a 1.5 degrees C temperature rise. The chances for moderate and severe droughts indicate a possible increase from 0 to 20%. Changes in precipitation are expected to increase more for longer-scale (12 months) droughts (0-15%) than for shorter-scale droughts (0-10%). The research results showed that the drought in North African countries will be more severe than in other areas. The regions ranging between 74,000 and 702,000 km2, which were not under droughts on the base period, are expected to face moderate drought for 3 to 6 months. The expected frequency and intensity of future droughts are projected to be higher in the far future compared to the near future, primarily due to increased potential evapotranspiration (PET) variability. These generated drought scenarios offer crucial insights for a deeper understanding of the risks and impacts of drought in the MENA region.