GIS-driven evaluation of energy infrastructure vulnerability to coastal inundation in Qatar

Rising average sea levels and increasingly extreme conditions pose serious threats to low-lying coastal areas due to various coastal hazards. These include the permanent marine submersion of land due to higher average sea levels, more frequent or intense coastal flooding, and increased coastal erosion. Climate drivers such as future Sea Level Rise (SLR) and marine storm events will significantly increase the damage on coastal energy infrastructure. This research assesses coastal energy infrastructure and consumption of the population at risk under the different SLR scenarios. These scenarios are modeled using Coupled GIS and Machine Learning models, utilizing elevation data points and monthly energy data of 2019. Preliminary result shows that in 2030, The coastal inundation maps will cover 6.6 km², and the total affected population will be 78,000, which means that 5% of the residential power units in Qatar will be under high climatic risk in Doha. By 2050, SLR could increase the exposure of residential electric meters to marine submersion by 20%, affecting an additional 8.5% of the population. By the year 2100, modeled results show that approximately 60% of Doha’s land surface may be at risk of submersion due to rising sea levels, potentially impacting an estimated 1,876,200 individuals as a result of accelerated SLR and increasingly frequent storm events. However, the number of residential power units exposed to extreme coastal marine events will increase by 40%. This research offers crucial insights into population and infrastructure at risk from future SLR, emphasizing the need for targeted mitigation strategies. We advocate for integrating Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) into coastal management policies to provide sustainable, cost-effective protection for vulnerable areas, while safeguarding infrastructure and supporting local communities.