Future energy demands and mix optimization under changing climate and socioeconomic scenarios

Rising electricity demand, driven by economic growth, population increase, and cooling requirements, poses a critical challenge that demands urgent, climate-resilient, and sustainable long-term energy planning. This study develops a novel framework that couples high-resolution climate projections, socio-economic pathways, land-suitability mapping to assess future demand, and a multi-objective optimization model to identify an optimal national energy mix. The framework is demonstrated using Qatar as a case study. Results illustrated that compared to 2022, Qatar’s maximum electricity demand was projected to increase by 35% under a moderate scenario and by 75% under an extreme scenario by 2070, underscoring the urgency of forward-looking planning. Land-suitability assessments revealed consistently high solar potential across the country, while wind resources were spatially limited and seasonally misaligned with summer peak demand. Over 2070–2100, average wind speeds were expected to decline by 2–3.5% relative to baseline values, reducing the long-term technical and economic potential of wind power. Scenario analysis highlighted fundamental trade-offs, as the balanced mix (69% natural gas, 31% solar PV) achieved strong resilience but modest sustainability, whereas solar-dominated scenarios (51% PV) reduced cost and emissions by 30–35% relative to a 100% natural-gas baseline but required significant oversizing to maintain security. Introducing wind increased emission reductions up to 37% but lowered resilience. Overall, solar PV emerged as Qatar’s most reliable renewable backbone, while natural gas remained essential for flexibility in the absence of storage. The findings provide policymakers with a scenario-driven roadmap that quantifies trade-offs among resilience, sustainability, and security, offering actionable insights for Qatar’s long-term energy strategy.