Future drought intensification and socioeconomic exposure in Pakistan under different SSP scenarios

Climate change intensifies global drought risk through altered precipitation, rising temperatures, and increased evaporative demand. Yet, drought assessments in Pakistan largely rely on single indices and overlook the combined effects of precipitation, temperature-driven moisture stress, and future socioeconomic exposure under SSP scenarios. To address these gaps, the present study provides a comprehensive assessment of future drought characteristics and their socioeconomic consequences in Pakistan, using high-resolution bias-corrected NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Drought conditions and resultant socioeconomic exposure (population, gross domestic product (GDP), and cropland) were assessed utilizing the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over a 12-mon accumulation interval for mid-century (2031–2060) and far-century (2071–2100). Results indicate strong spatial variability in projected drought patterns and socioeconomic exposure, with more pronounced changes under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) compared to low-emission pathways. The SPI projections indicate a moderate increase in long-duration precipitation-deficit droughts across northern Pakistan, with drought duration increasing by about 2–4 mon, whereas SPEI projections show substantially stronger warming-induced drought stress across the arid regions of southern Pakistan, with local drought duration increases exceeding 6 mon under high-emission scenarios. The central and northern Indus corridor experiences a notable rise in population and GDP exposure, with population exposure exceeding 10 million people-events and GDP exposure reaching approximately 50–100 billion USD-events by the late 21st century. Agricultural exposure increases across all scenarios, with a more pronounced expansion of hotspots in Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and eastern Baluchistan under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Population exposure is primarily driven by demographic factors in the near term, while GDP exposure shows earlier and stronger sensitivity to climate-driven interactions. Overall, the findings indicate that Pakistan's drought risk is projected to increase markedly under future SSP scenarios, particularly affecting the agriculturally and economically vital Indus Basin. These results highlight the importance of integrating precipitation- and temperature-based drought metrics for robust risk assessment and emphasize the need for region-specific adaptation strategies focusing on water management, agricultural resilience, urban planning, and climate-responsive economic development.