Flood and sea level rise risk assessment in Qatar using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis

Qatar, a low-lying arid peninsula, is vulnerable to flooding and sea-level rise (SLR) driven by climate change, posing potential threats to its infrastructure. This study presents a geospatial assessment of flood and SLR risks under both present and future climate scenarios. Utilizing a GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach, the analysis integrates hydrological, topographical, and socioeconomic parameters to identify areas of higher risk. Results indicate that approximately 15–24% of Qatar's land area is currently vulnerable to flooding, and these vulnerable areas are mostly located in the northern and northeastern coastal regions. Future projections reveal a spatial shift in flood vulnerability from northern to southern Qatar, creating new vulnerability hotspots by 2100. Projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6 to SSP5–8.5) indicated land inundation ranging from 0.83% to 1.82% and present-value economic exposure estimated between USD 10.33 billion and USD 22.92 billion by the end of the 21st century. Moreover, the population in coastal areas exposed to SLR-related hazards is approximately 168,481 individuals under SSP5–8.5 and 73,916 under SSP1–2.6 by the year 2100. These findings suggest the need for climate-resilient urban planning, comprehensive coastal protection measures, and integrated flood risk management to safeguard Qatar's critical infrastructure, ecological resources, and vulnerable communities.