Ethanol Content Increase in Gasoline Toward Sustainable Liquid Fuels Worldwide: Impacts on Manufacturing and Supply Chains via Discrete-Event Scenarios

Biofuels, such as ethanol (CH₃CH₂OH), remain significantly underutilized globally despite their potential to mitigate environmental effects associated with fossil fuel combustion. Ethanol (ETH) can seamlessly blend with petroleum-derived gasoline, boosting its octane rating as a virtuous side effect. However, in several countries, octane number (ON) boosters such as methyl-tert-butyl-ether (MTBE) are still blended into the gasoline (also known as gas or petrol) sold in fuel stations, despite this being restricted or banned due to deleterious effects on the environment and health. Additionally, in nations overproducing naphtha from refining petroleum condensates, such as in the Middle East, investments in extra carbon chain rearrangement units can be an outlet to enhance gasoline production, since they produce high-ON streams; however, aromatic concentration becomes a limiting constraint. A discrete-event simulation algorithm combines sixteen main (primary) manufacturing variations into two secondary manufacturing and three supply chain variations, building gasoline yield and property plots over 512 gasoline production scenarios.