Economic and environmental assessment of waste-derived aviation fuels using agent-based modeling under carbon pricing

Limited attention has been given to how environmental performance and economic incentives jointly shape aviation fuel adoption under evolving policy conditions. Most existing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) studies rely on aggregated optimization models that assume equilibrium conditions, overlooking decentralized decision-making and actor heterogeneity. This study addresses this gap by framing the adoption of SAF as a complex adaptive system, where diverse flight agents respond to economic and regulatory incentives, producing fleet-level outcomes through decentralized operational decisions. An integrated framework is developed, combining life cycle assessment (LCA), techno-economic data, and agent-based modeling (ABM), simulating fuel selection at the individual flight level. By integrating environmental assessment with economic optimization, the model allows analysis at both flight and fleet levels. Results show that a 50% pyrolysis bio-oil blend consistently minimizes total operational cost under carbon pricing, reducing fleet-level costs from USD 9.38 billion for operating on 100% conventional jet fuel baseline to USD 4.7 billion while achieving significant lifecycle emissions reductions. The framework enables testing of alternative policy instruments, such as carbon pricing and blending mandates, providing practical insight into the aviation decarbonization pathway. Future research will incorporate endogenous supply–demand interactions, dynamic fuel pricing, infrastructure and resource constraints, and stochastic decision-making to better capture evolving SAF markets and improve the framework's applicability.