Conditional cash transfers and educational inequality in Pakistan

Pakistan faces one of the highest rates of out-of-school children globally, with 22.8 million children lacking access to formal education. This study examines the structural, socio-economic, and cultural barriers to school enrollment and retention, using nationally representative data from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (2010–11, 2014–15, 2019–20). Logistic regression models identify three principal determinants of exclusion: financial constraints, parental denial rooted in sociocultural norms, and child labor. Results show that child labor exerts the strongest negative effect on educational attainment, particularly in rural areas, while education costs disproportionately burden low-income households. Parental denial emerges as a persistent barrier across all years, sustaining gender-based inequities. To assess policy responses, the study evaluates the Zewar-e-Taleem conditional cash transfer program, which provides stipends to girls in marginalized districts. Findings demonstrate that the program significantly increases female enrollment, underscoring the effectiveness of targeted financial incentives. The results highlight the need for comprehensive reforms, including increased public investment in education, scaling up of conditional cash transfers, and community-driven campaigns to challenge restrictive social norms. By integrating rigorous empirical analysis with policy evaluation, this paper contributes evidence on strategies to advance inclusive and equitable education in Pakistan and comparable contexts in the Global South.