Comparative Assessment of Flexible Natural Gas Monetisation Processes to Products Under Uncertainties: Agent-Based Modelling Approach

With the increased demand for cleaner energy resources, natural gas is a bridging fuel for smoothening the transition to renewables. Power, liquified natural gas (LNG), ammonia, and urea have attracted significant attention among the various monetisation routes. The different monetisation routes differ regarding production technologies, associated energy and utilities requirements, released emissions, and operational flexibility. Despite the estimated demand growth in product demand, each natural gas monetisation process is subject to exogenous market uncertainties. This work evaluates the flexibility of natural gas monetisation processes to LNG, ammonia, urea, and power by investigating plant design configurations and natural gas production allocation to different production routes. The commercial software Aspen HYSYS is used for process modelling and simulation, followed by identifying the operational flexibility of each process. The simulation results and forecasted price and demand data are then used as input into an agent-based model to identify the optimal annual natural gas allocation to different processes subject to environmental and economic objectives. Overall, the study provides decision-makers with a systematic approach to evaluate the effectiveness of flexible natural gas allocation to different processes based on technical, economic, and environmental aspects. The results of Qatar's case study demonstrate the importance of prioritising Power and LNG production to maximise profitability and hedge against risks. On the other hand, ammonia production is maximised to offset environmental emissions and tackle CO₂ emissions.