Assessing and Projecting Climatic Changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region: Insights from Regional Climate Model (RCM) Simulations and Future Projections

This chapter provides a comprehensive methodology for beginners to evaluate and project climate change simulations using regional climate models (RCMs). Focusing on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the chapter presents a step-by-step approach for assessing and projecting the trends of two crucial global climatic indicators: surface air temperature and precipitation. The evaluation and projections are conducted for both the near-term (2031-2050) and long-term (2081-2100) future periods, with a reference to the recent past (1976-2005) as a baseline. Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are utilized for the projections. By employing this methodology, researchers and practitioners can better understand and address the impacts of climate change. The outcomes of this chapter provide valuable insights for the development of resilient urban systems, offering a high-resolution (50?km) assessment of temperature and precipitation projections across the MENA region throughout the twenty-first century. These projections serve as a crucial reference for various climate change impact studies, assisting in the formulation of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Through the analysis and projection of surface air temperature and precipitation, this chapter contributes to enhancing our understanding of future climatic changes in the MENA region. By incorporating the RCM simulations and Representative Concentration Pathways, it provides a robust foundation for decision-making processes related to climate change resilience and sustainable development.