Anticipating social change in the Arabian Gulf: scenarios and policy pathways through foresight

Purpose – Driven by local, regional and global dynamics, Qatar alongside the Arabian Gulf as a whole has undergone tremendous political and economic shifts resulting in significant social transformations in recent decades. In this context, much attention has been given to economic diversification, educational reforms and regional and global geopolitics. However relatively little focus has been given to cultural shifts, expectations and worldviews of the society undergoing these transformations. This paper aims to explore the case of Qatar guided by strategic foresight methodology. Design/methodology/approach – This paper explores the case of Qatar guided by strategic foresight methodology. Findings – Based on multiple and carefully designed and facilitated focus groups with a wide range of participants, it develops three different future scenarios of social and cultural life in Qatar enriched with causal layered analysis: a preferred future, a worst case and an outlier case. It is followed by specific policy recommendations to support a positive cultural evolution and mitigate potential societal risks in Qatar’s future development. Originality/value – This study is among the first to apply a strategic foresight framework to social and cultural change in the Arabian Gulf, integrating participatory scenario building with policy analysis to address an underexplored dimension of the region’s transformation.