A MUSE-HiQ pathway to evaluate the transition from LNG export to hydrogen: Qatar as a case study

Global efforts to transition from fossil fuels towards a hydrogen-based future present Qatar with a strategic opportunity to leverage its fossil fuel endowment for the production of clean hydrogen for export. This paper applies the MUSE simulation platform to evaluate Qatar’s potential to consolidate its position as a leading low-carbon energy exporter, building on its established LNG capacity, under three distinct emissions mitigation scenarios. The analysis compares the relative competitiveness of LNG, hydrogen, and ammonia, highlighting the influence of carbon price trajectories and demand levels. Results show that under moderate emissions targets, hydrogen begins to substitute LNG at carbon prices of USD 420-460 per ton CO₂, whereas under more stringent carbon budgets, hydrogen enters the market at lower carbon prices of 90-130 USD per ton CO₂. Ammonia, by contrast, remains structurally uncompetitive against capitalizing in LNG and hydrogen under transition. These findings underscore the pivotal role of policy in shaping export competitiveness and demonstrate the value of model-based analysis in informing strategic policy discourse.